Abalimi sebeyayibona imiphumela yobusuku obufudumele basebusika kanye nezinsuku zasehlobo ezishisayo ezitshalweni zabo. Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuhamba kancane, kodwa ukwanda kwamazinga okushisa kuthinta izici eziningi zokulima, okuhlanganisa nokuthi izitshalo zitshalwa kuphi futhi kanjani.
U-Tapan Pathak, uchwepheshe we-University of California Cooperative Extension ozinze e-UC Merced, wenza ucwaningo olusetshenziswa abalimi nabafuyi abangalusebenzisa ukuze bavumelane nezimo ezintsha ezidalwe ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu esishintshayo.
“Akudingeki ukuthi ushintshe ukwenza kwakho kusasa, kodwa uma ucabanga ukutshala imali yeminyaka engu-30, kubalulekile ukwazi ukuthi yiziphi izingozi ezikhona zokutshala izitshalo ezahlukene,” uPathak, ozinze eSierra Nevada Research Institute. e-UC Merced, kusho umbiko wezindaba.
UPathak ungusihlalo ngokuhlanganyela Ithimba Le-UC Cooperative Extension Climate Change Programme, umgomo walo uwukukhulisa amandla phakathi kwezifundiswa zase-UCCE ukuze kubhekwane nokukhathazeka ngokushintsha kwesimo sezulu ngolwazi olusekelwe kwisayensi. I-Pathak iphinde ihlanganyele nezingcweti zezandiso ezivela kulo lonke elasentshonalanga ye-US ukwenza imicimbi yokwandisa ehlobene nokuzivumelanisa nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu. Usebenzisana eduze nezinhlaka zikahulumeni kanye nezinhlaka zikahulumeni ezweni lonke kanye nabalimi ukuhlonza izinguquko ezenzekayo ngenxa yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu okuthinta ezolimo. Ucwaningo lukaPathak luzokwazisa izinqumo zabalimi, njengezinhlobonhlobo zezitshalo, izinsuku zokutshala nokuvuna, ukushisa okukhulu nesithwathwa kanye nokulawulwa kwezinambuzane.
“Siyayibona imithelela yokuguquka kwesimo sezulu, lokho kusobala. Sinazo izixazululo ezikhona, kodwa futhi sidinga ukwenza ucwaningo oluqondene nezitshalo endaweni ukuze senze ezolimo zikwazi ukumelana nezingozi zesimo sezulu,” kusho uPathak.
Usosayensi we-UCCE wayengumbhali ohamba phambili ephepheni elibalulekile elahlanganisa imithelela yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kwezolimo lwaseCalifornia futhi linikeza iziqondiso zocwaningo nokusetshenziswa kwesikhathi esizayo. Ababhali baphethe ngokuthi cishe zonke izitshalo zaseCalifornia, ezilinganiselwa ngaphezu kwezigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-50 zamaRandi ngonyaka, zizoba sengozini ngezinga elithile ngokukhuphuka kwamazinga okushisa kanye nezimo zezulu eziguquguqukayo. Isifundo "Izimo Zokuguquguquka Kwesimo Sezulu kanye namiama-Pacts ku-California Agriculture” yashicilelwa ku-Agronomy ngo-2018.
“Ngicabanga ukuthi ziningi izixazululo ezikhona futhi kunesidingo esicacile socwaningo lokuzivumelanisa nezimo oluhlanganisa nemibono yabalimi,” kusho uPathak, othole Indondo Yobuholi Besimo Sezulu ngocwaningo oluvela enhlanganweni. I-California Climate & Agriculture Network.
U-Pathak futhi usebenzisana eduze kakhulu nochwepheshe we-UCCE ozinze e-UC Davis uDaniel Zaccaria, ohola iphrojekthi yamazwe ngamazwe yokuhlola indices ye-bioclimatic kanye nokuthuthukisa inkomba ehambisana kakhulu nezolimo eziniselwayo, okubandakanya ososayensi base-US, Italy, Brazil naseChile. .
"Inkomba ye-bioclimatic eqondene nezolimo eziniselwayo inganikeza ulwazi olunembile nolubalulekile lwesomiso lwezolimo olungaba usizo ekuhleleni nasekulawuleni imithombo yamanzi," kusho uPathak.
I-Cal AgroClimate
U-Pathak wenza uhlelo lokusekela izinqumo olusekelwe kuwebhu olubizwa ngokuthi i-Cal AgroClimate ukuze lisize abalimi ukwenza izinqumo, ngokubambisana nomqondisi we-USDA California Climate Hub uSteven Ostoja. Yakhiwa endaweni efanayo I-AgroClimate, ethandwa ngabalimi baseNingizimu-mpumalanga.
I-Cal AgroClimate ihumusha idatha yomlando yesimo sezulu kanye nezilinganiso zesikhathi esizayo zibe uhlelo oluwusizo lokusekela abalimi. Isibonelo, abalimi bangathola izeluleko zokushisa okukhulu nesithwathwa ezinsukwini eziyi-10 kuye kweziyi-14 ezizayo endaweni yabo kanye nezinsiza ezifanele ukuze banciphise ubungozi bezitshalo abazikhethile. Isesigabeni sokuqala sentuthuko futhi izofaka iqoqo lamathuluzi asekelwe ezidingweni nezinto eziza kuqala ezikhonjwe ozakwabo base-UCCE, abalimi kanye nomphakathi wezolimo uwonke.
Ngaphezu komsebenzi wakhe weCal AgroClimate, uPathak ubelokhu enza ucwaningo ngezitshalo ezithile.
utamatisi
Phakathi ku ucwaningo olubheka ukucubungula ukukhiqizwa kukatamatisi e-Central Valley, u-Pathak kanye nomeluleki we-UCCE uScott Stoddard uthole ukuthi ukuguquka kwamazinga okushisa kungenzeka shintsha inkathi yokukhula kukatamatisi. Ososayensi babheke ukucubungula idatha katamatisi kusukela ngo-1950 kanye nokuqagela kuka-2030-2040 ukuze babone ukuthi isikhathi sokuvuthwa sishintsha kanjani.
"Ngokujwayelekile, isikhathi kusukela ekukhuleni kuya ekuvuthweni, isikhathi sokucubungula utamatisi kuleso sifunda sizoncipha ngamaviki amabili kuya kwamathathu," kusho uPathak. “Amaphrosesa amaningi anomugqa wawo wesikhathi wokuthi adinga nini utamatisi ukuze acutshungulwe ngakho-ke uma unalolu shintsho ku-phenology, okushintsha isikhathi esibekelwe ukuthi avuthwe futhi alungele amaphrosesa. Ngakho-ke, kunoshintsho olukhulu ekuphathweni abalimi okungenzeka bacabange ngalo ngokuzayo.”
Ama-alimondi
Ukuhlonza imininingwane yesimo sezulu abalimi be-alimondi badinga ukuthatha isinyathelo sokuzivumelanisa nezimo, umcwaningi wase-UC Berkeley postdoctoral uKripa Jagannathan, owayengumeluleki we-UCCE uDavid Doll noPathak. kuxoxisane nabalimi be-alimondi eCentral Valley. Phakathi nezingxoxo zabo nabalimi, abacwaningi bacacise ukuthi ukuqagela isimo sezulu sesikhathi eside akuzona izibikezelo zesizini noma izibikezelo zesimo sezulu zeminyaka engu-20 kuya kwengama-30 ezayo. Izilinganiso zinikeza ulwazi mayelana nezitayela noma amathuba okushintsha ezimeni zomlando ukuze kwenziwe izinqumo zokuhlela zesikhathi eside.
Ukulawula izinambuzane kuyindawo eyodwa lapho abalimi bezodinga ukwenza izinguquko. Ucwaningo olwenziwe ngumeluleki we-UCCE u-Jhalendra Rijal kanye no-Pathak lubonisa ukuthi i-almond pest navel orangeworm isivele yelula impilo yayo esizukulwaneni sesihlanu phakathi nesizini.
Ama-Strawberries
Okwamastrawberry, uPathak, umeluleki we-UCCE entomology kanye ne-biologicals u-Surendra Dara kanye nomcwaningi we-postdoctoral uMahesh Maskey benze imodeli yokubikezela isivuno sezitshalo samasonto onke ngokusekelwe kudatha yesimo sezulu. "Imodeli ibinembile kakhulu esifundeni saseSanta Maria," kusho uPathak. "Imodeli eqondene nezitshalo ingasetshenziswa ekulawuleni abasebenzi hhayi nje ukuphatha izitshalo."
Ngenxa yokuthi iCalifornia ikhiqiza imikhiqizo yezolimo engaphezu kuka-400, ukuzivumelanisa nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuzoba nzima kakhulu kunakwezinye izifundazwe.
Isithombe phezulu: U-Tapen Pathak, kwesokunxele, kanye no-Mahesh Maskey balungisa izinzwa ensimini yama-strawberry ngo-2018. Ngokusebenzisana no-Surenda Dara, bathuthukise imodeli yokubikezela isivuno sezitshalo samasonto onke ngokusekelwe kudatha yesimo sezulu.