Jose A. Egea1*, Manuel Caro2, UJesús García-Brunton2, Jesus Gambín 3, José Egea 1 kanye noDavid Ruiz 1*
- 1Iqembu Lokuzalisa Izithelo, Umnyango Wokuzalanisa Izitshalo, CEBAS-CSIC, Murcia, Spain
- 2I-Murcia Institute of Agri-Food Research and Development, Murcia, Spain
- 3ENAE Business School, University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain
Ukukhiqizwa kwezithelo zamatshe kunokubaluleka okukhulu kwezomnotho eSpain. Izindawo zokulinywa zalezi zinhlobo zezithelo (okungukuthi, ipentshisi, amabhilikosi, iplamu, ne-sweet cherry) zithatha indawo ebanzi futhi ehlukahlukene ngokwesimo sezulu ezweni. Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu sekuvele kudala ukwanda kwamazinga okushisa ajwayelekile ngomfutho okhethekile ezindaweni ezithile njengaseMedithera. Lezi zinguquko ziholela ekwehleni kokugodola okunqwabelene, okungaba nomthelela omkhulu ku-phenology. Prunus izinhlobo ezifana nezithelo zamatshe ngenxa, isb, ubunzima bokuhlangabezana nezidingo ezibandayo ukuze kunqamuke i-endodormancy, ukuvela kwezenzakalo zesithwathwa sekwephuzile, noma amazinga okushisa angaphambi kwesikhathi angavamile. Zonke lezi zici zingathinta kakhulu ukukhiqizwa kwezithelo kanye nekhwalithi ngakho-ke kubangele imiphumela emibi kakhulu ngokombono wezenhlalakahle nezomnotho ezifundeni ezikhona. Ngakho-ke, ukuhlukaniswa kwezindawo zamanje zokulinywa ngokwezinto eziguquguqukayo ze-agroclimatic (isb, ukugodola nokushisa okunqwabelanayo kanye namathuba okuba nesithwathwa kanye nezenzakalo zokushisa okungavamile), ngokusekelwe emininingwaneni evela eziteshini zesimo sezulu ezingu-270 eminyakeni engu-20 edlule, kwenziwa kulo msebenzi ukuze veza isithombe esifundisayo ngesimo samanje. Ngaphandle kwalokho, ukuqagela kwesimo sezulu esizayo okuvela kumamodeli ahlukene wesimo sezulu somhlaba (idatha etholwe ku-Meteorological State Agency of Spain—AEMET) kufika ku-2065 ngezimo ezimbili zeRepresentative Concentration Pathway (okungukuthi, i-RCP4.5 ne-RCP8.5) nazo ziyahlaziywa. Ngokusebenzisa isimo samanje njengesisekelo futhi kucutshungulwa izimo zesikhathi esizayo, ulwazi mayelana nokufaneleka kwamanje nekusasa lokuzivumelanisa nezimo zezinhlobo/ama-cultivar ahlukene ezindaweni ezihlukahlukene ezikhulayo zingacatshangwa. Lolu lwazi lungase lube isisekelo sethuluzi lokusekela izinqumo lokusiza ababambiqhaza abahlukene ukuthi bathathe izinqumo ezifanele mayelana nezithelo zamatshe zamanje nezesikhathi esizayo noma ezinye izinhlobo zezinhlobo ezipholile eSpain.
Isingeniso
ISpain ingenye yabakhiqizi abakhulu emhlabeni jikelele bezithelo zamatshe (okungukuthi, ipentshisi, ibhilikosi, iplamu, ne-sweet cherry) ngokukhiqiza okuphakathi konyaka okungaba amathani ayizigidi ezimbili. Ukutshalwa kwalezi zithelo kunendima ebaluleke kakhulu kwezomnotho ezweni, okuhlanganisa cishe amahektha ayi-2 (I-FAOSTAT, 2019). Izindawo ezikhula kakhulu eSpain zalezi zimila zitholakala ezindaweni ezinezici ezihlukile ze-agroclimatic: ukusuka ezindaweni ezifudumele njengeGuadalquivir Valley kanye nengxenye enkulu yendawo yaseMedithera kuya ezindaweni ezibandayo njengenyakatho ye-Extremadura, i-Ebro valley, nezinye izindawo zangaphakathi zendawo yaseMedithera. (bheka Umfanekiso we-1). Njengoba lezi zitshalo zidinga ukubanda okwanele kwasebusika ukuze kunqamuke i-endodormancy ukugwema izinkinga zokukhiqiza (Atkinson et al., 2013)Campoy et al., 2011b; Luedeling et al., 2011; Luedeling, 2012; UJulian et al., 2007; UGui et al., 2015; 2019; Chmielewski et al., 2018), futhi (iv) akhethe izindlela ezingcono kakhulu zezolimo kanye nobuchwepheshe ukuze kuncishiswe umphumela wokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu (Campoy et al., 2010; UMahmood et al., 2018).
Izidingo zokuphola nokushisa (UFadón et al., 2020b) noma izinga lomonakalo wesithwathwa (UMiranda et al., 2005) zezinhlobo/izimila ezitshalwayo manje zingahlanganiswa namamethrikhi e-agroclimatic ezindaweni ezihlukene ukuze kwakhiwe amathuluzi ezinqumo asiza abakhiqizi nabanye ababambiqhaza ukuba baklame izinqubomgomo zokukhiqiza nezomnotho ezisezingeni eliphakathi nesikhathi eside. Amathuluzi okumodela atholakalayo okucubungula uchungechunge olukhulu lwesimo sezulu kanye ne-phenological asesebenza njengesisekelo sokwakha amathuluzi esinqumo ashiwo ngenhla (Luedeling, 2019; Luedeling et al., 2021; UMiranda et al., 2021). Ukuqagela kwesimo sezulu endaweni yaseMedithera kuveza ukuthi imiphumela yokufudumala kwembulunga ingaba mibi kakhulu kule ndawo (U-Giorgi no-Lionello, ngo-2008; I-MedECC, 2020; IPCC, 2021), ngakho-ke izinyathelo zokulindela zibalulekile ukuze kugwenywe izinkinga zokukhiqiza zesikhathi esizayo, ezingase zibe nomthelela omubi emnothweni wezifunda ezithile njengalezi ezethulwe kulolu cwaningo (U-Olesen no-Bindi, ngo-2002; Benmoussa et al., 2018).
Ucwaningo oluhlukile lunqume umthelela omubi wokufudumala kwembulunga ekukhiqizweni kwezithelo ezipholile namantongomane ezifundeni ezihlukene emhlabeni jikelele. Izimbangela eziyinhloko zihlobene nokuncipha kwamakhaza asebusika nakuba ukwanda kwezingozi zesithwathwa ngenxa yokuthuthuka okulindelekile ekuqhakazeni nasekuqhakazeni nakho kuyacatshangelwa kwezinye izifundo. Ngokwesibonelo, uFernandez et al. ibikezele ukwehla kwamakhaza asebusika adingekayo ekukhiqizweni kwezithelo ezivuthuluka e-Chile, kanye nemithelela engemihle elindelekile ezindaweni ezisenyakatho yezwe. Ngasikhathi sinye, baveze ukwehla okukhulu kwamathuba esithwathwa ngesikhathi esizwakalayo sokuqhuma kwezihlahla zezithelo ezivuthuluka kuzo zonke izindawo ezicatshangelwayo.UFernandez et al., 2020); Lorite et al. kuhlaziywe izigigaba ezifana nokuntuleka kokubanda kwasebusika, ubungozi besithwathwa, nezimo ezifudumele ngesikhathi sokuqhakaza eNhlonhlweni yase-Iberia kwezinye izimila ze-alimondi ezihlanganisa ukuqagela kwesimo sezulu kanye nolwazi lwe-phenological. Bathole ukuthi, ngokujwayelekile (futhi kuye ngecultivar ecatshangelwayo), (i) ukuntuleka kokubandayo kwasebusika kuzogqama kakhulu ogwini lwaseMedithera naseGuadalquivir Valley, (ii) izimo ezifudumele ngesikhathi sokuqhakaza zizoba namandla kakhulu e-Central. I-Plateau ne-Ebro Valley, kanye (iii) nengozi yesithwathwa izokwehliswa ezindaweni ezithile zaseNorthern Plateau kanye ne-Northern Hilly Areas (U-Lorite et al., 2020). Benmoussa et al. kulindeleke ukuthi kuncishiswe amakhaza asebusika esikhathini esizayo eTunisia okungaba nomthelela omkhulu ekukhiqizeni ezinye izithelo namantongomane. Isibonelo, esimweni esingenathemba kakhulu, izinhlobo zama-alimondi ezipholile kuphela ezingasebenza. Kwezinye izimo, amanye ama-pistachios nama-peach cultivar angasebenza ngisho nangesikhathi eside engxenyeni esenyakatho-ntshonalanga yezwe (Benmoussa et al., 2020); U-Fraga no-Santos bacabange kokubili ukuqoqwa okubandayo nokushisa okuzayo kanye nomthelela wako ekukhiqizweni kwezithelo ezahlukene e-Portugal. Baveze ukwehla okuqinile kokugodola kwasebusika okuzothinta kakhulu izifunda ezingaphakathi kakhulu zezwe. Izindawo ezikhulayo zama-apula ezisenyakatho zizochayeka kakhulu ekuncishisweni okubandayo. Ababhali baphinde baveza ukwanda kokuqoqwa kokushisa, okunomthelela omkhulu ezindaweni eziseningizimu nasogwini lwezwe. Bagcizelele ukuthi leli qiniso linganyusa ubungozi bokulimala kwesithwathwa ngenxa yokuthuthuka kwezigaba ze-phenological (URodríguez et al., 2019, 2021; I-Fraga ne-Santos, 2021) kuqhathanise isimo samanje sezindawo zokukhiqiza zezithelo ezipholile e-Spain nezimo ezizayo zokushintsha kwesimo sezulu mayelana nokunqwabelana kwamakhaza. Babikezele ukulahlekelwa okubandayo okubalulekile kwezinye izindawo (isb., eNingizimu-Mpumalanga noma endaweni yase-Gualdalquivir) ngisho nasesikhathini esizayo esiseduze. Esikhathini esizayo esikude (>2070), laba babhali bathi uma kucatshangelwa izindawo ezikhulayo zamanje, iplamu, ama-alimondi, nama-apula ama-cultivars angathinteka kakhulu ngenxa yokuntuleka kokubanda (URodríguez et al., 2019, 2021).
Kulolu cwaningo, sihlole ukuguquguquka okuyinhloko kwe-agroclimatic okuhlobene nokujwayela kwezithelo zamatshe ezifundeni ezihlukene ngaphakathi kweSpain, okuhlanganisa nalezo lapho ukukhiqizwa kwezithelo zamatshe ezibaluleke kakhulu kwenzeka kusetshenziswa idatha evela eziteshini zesimo sezulu ezingama-270 phakathi nenkathi ka-2000–2020. Lokhu kuhambisana nokuqagela kwezinga lokushisa kwesikhathi esizayo ukulinganisa ukuvela kokugodola nokunqwabelana kokushisa kanye namathuba esikhathi esizayo esithwathwa kanye nezenzakalo zangaphambi kwesikhathi zokushisa okungavamile uma kuqhathaniswa nesimo samanje. Lolu lwazi lungaba usizo olukhulu ekuthatheni izinqumo ezifanele ezihlobene nokumisa izinsimu zezithelo ezintsha, ukuthutha ezamanje, noma ukukhetha ama-cultivar afanele ukuze uthole inzuzo ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.
Igalelo eliyinhloko lalolu cwaningo ukuthi sihlaziye ngesikhathi esifanayo okuguquguqukayo okuhlukile kwe-agroclimatic okuhlobene nokujwayela izithelo zamatshe. Hhayi kuphela ukunqwabelana kokuphola ukuze kugcwaliseke ama-CR njengoba kwenziwa ocwaningweni ngu Rodríguez et al. (2019, 2021) kodwa futhi nokunqwabelana kokushisa kokuqhakaza okufanele, izingozi zesithwathwa, kanye nokuguquguquka okungavamile ukubalwa ezincwadini: amathuba ezenzakalo zokushisa okungavamile ebusika ezingakhuphula ukukhululwa kwe-endodormancy nomthelela omubi ekukhiqizweni kwezithelo, ikhwalithi, kanye nesivuno, njengoba kuye kwaba njalo. okubonwe ezindaweni ezifudumele phakathi neminyaka edlule. Sisebenzise idatha evela kunethiwekhi eminyene kakhulu yeziteshi zesimo sezulu ezihlinzeka ngamamethrikhi anembile ngesimo samanje. Sigxile emikhakheni ekhiqizayo njengamanje njengoba izinqumo ezimayelana nokujwayela ukufudumala cishe zizothathwa kulezo zindawo, lapho ubuchwepheshe obufanele nolwazi kubekwe kahle khona. Ezindaweni ezinjalo, ukuthuthwa kwezitshalo kuzoveza imiphumela engathandeki kwezenhlalo-mnotho kanye nokuncipha kwabantu. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuze sibonise isimo samanje, sisebenzise amazinga okushisa angempela ngehora esikhundleni salawo alinganiselwe, anikeza ukunemba okwengeziwe emiphumeleni uma kuqhathaniswa nezinye izifundo lapho amazinga okushisa anjalo ngehora ehlanganiswa kusukela kowansuku zonke. Ukulungiswa okusetshenzisiwe (~5 km) kuhle kakhulu kunezinye izifundo ezifanayo eSpain (URodríguez et al., 2019, 2021; U-Lorite et al., 2020) futhi isiza ekuthatheni izinqumo ngisho nasezingeni lendawo.
Izimpahla nezindlela
Idatha Yesimo Sezulu kanye Nokuguquguquka Kwezolimo
Idatha yesimo sezulu evela eziteshini zesimo sezulu ezingama-340 ezitholakala ezindaweni ezikhiqiza izithelo zamatshe eSpain (bona Umfanekiso we-1) zasetshenziselwa ukuhlola amamethrikhi e-agroclimatic. Idatha yayihlanganisa okuguquguqukayo kwesimo sezulu okuyinhloko, okuhlanganisa isilinganiso, isilinganiso esiphezulu, nezinga lokushisa eliphansi (°C), umswakama ohlobene (%), imvula (mm), i-evapotranspiration (ETo, mm), nemisebe yelanga (W/m2). Amarekhodi angaphelele nezindaba zitholwe kwezinye zeziteshi ezicatshangelwe. Ngemuva kokusebenzisa umthethonqubo waseSpain (UNE 500540, 2004), kwakhethwa inani lokugcina leziteshi ezingama-270. Idatha yezinga lokushisa lehora ibiphelele ngaphandle kwamahora angenalutho ahambisana nemicimbi yokunakekela engazange igcwaliswe njengoba ibihlanganisa amaphesenti anganaki yenani eliphelele. Amazinga okushisa amaphakathi ngehora esikhathini sika-2000–2020 asetshenziswa ukubala okuguquguqukayo okuyinhloko kwe-agroclimate, okuhlanganisa ukugodola nokushisa okunqwabelanayo kanye namathuba okuba khona kwesithwathwa abe yingozi kanye nemicimbi yokushisa engavamile ebusika. Isibalo seminyaka ephelele esiteshini ngasinye siyahlukahluka ngesiteshi ngasinye: kusukela eminyakeni emi-5 kuye kwengama-21 (imaphakathi = 20) kuye ngesiteshi.
Ukuqoqwa kokuphola kwesizini ngayinye kubalwe kusukela mhla lu-1 kuNovemba kuze kube umhla zingama-28 kuNhlolanja wonyaka olandelayo. I-Utah (I-Richardson et al., 1974) kanye ne-Dynamic (UFishman et al., 1987) amamodeli asetshenzisiwe ukwenza lesi sibalo. Ukuqoqwa kokushisa kwesizini ngayinye kubalwe kusukela mhla lu-1 kuJanuwari kuya kumhla ziyisi-8 kuMbasa (cishe amasonto ayi-14) kusetshenziswa i-Richardson (I-Richardson et al., 1974kanye no-Anderson (U-Anderson et al., 1986) amamodeli, ahlinzeka ngemiphumela emahoreni amadigri akhulayo (GDHs). Amathuba okuba nesithwathwa kanye nezenzakalo zokushisa okungavamile abalwe isonto ngalinye ngale ndlela elandelayo: isonto ngalinye, kwenzeka isithwathwa uma izinga lokushisa liwela ngaphansi kuka-−1°C okungenani phakathi namahora amathathu alandelanayo. Bese, amathuba okuba khona kwezehlakalo zesithwathwa evikini elithile achazwa njengenani lezikhathi lelo sonto libe nesehlakalo okungenani esisodwa sesithwathwa phakathi nesikhathi socwaningo sihlukaniswa ngenani leminyaka ecatshangelwayo. Ngokufanayo, isenzakalo sokushisa esingavamile senzeka uma izinga lokushisa likhuphuka ngaphezu kuka-25°C okungenani amahora amathathu alandelanayo. Bese, amathuba okuba kwenzeke kwezehlakalo zokushisa okungavamile abalwa njengoba kuchazwe ezenzakalweni zesithwathwa. Isonto loku-1 liqale ngo-1 kuJanuwari. Ezehlakalweni zesithwathwa, amasonto asuka ku-2 kuye kwayi-10 ayebhekwa njengamele amasonto angaba yingozi. Amasonto okuqala ebangeni (okungukuthi, isonto lesi-2 kuya kwelesi-5-6) angaba yilawo ayingozi kakhulu ezindaweni ezifudumele, kanti amanye (okungukuthi, amaviki ama-5-6 kuya kwele-10) kungaba yilawo abucayi ezindaweni ezibandayo. Ezehlakalweni zokushisa okungavamile, isikhathi esicatshangelwayo sasisukela evikini lama-49 lonyaka odlule (ekuqaleni kukaDisemba) kuya kumhla ziyisi-8 (ekupheleni kukaFebruwari) lapho le micimbi ingase ikhulise ukukhululwa kokulala okuhlobene nezinkinga zokukhiqiza kamuva.
Izimo Ezizayo
Ngokuphathelene nezimo zesikhathi esizayo, ukuqagela kwezinga lokushisa okubalwe yi-Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) kwasetshenziswa. I-AEMET ibikhiqiza eminyakeni yamuva nje isethi yezithenjwa ezehliswe ukuqagela kokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu eSpain noma isebenzisa izindlela zokwehlisa izibalo emiphumeleni yamamodeli wesimo sezulu somhlaba (GCMs) noma isebenzisa ulwazi olukhiqizwa amasu okwehlisa amandla anamandla ngamaphrojekthi aseYurophu noma imizamo yamazwe ngamazwe. njenge-PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES, kanye ne-EURO-CORDEX (U-Amblar-Francés et al., 2018). Kulolu cwaningo, sisebenzise amazinga okushisa ahlongozwayo wansuku zonke (okungukuthi, ubukhulu kanye nobuncane) sisebenzisa ukwehlisa izibalo ngokusekelwe kumanethiwekhi okwenziwa emizwa. Lokhu kuhlolwe njengendlela efanelekile yokukhiqiza ukuqagela kwesimo sezulu ezimeni zamanje nezesikhathi esizayo eSpain ngenkathi kunciphisa ukuchema kwemodeli ye-GCMs (U-Hernanz et al., 2022a,b) ngaphezu kwegridi yokulungiswa okungu-5 km. Kucatshangelwe ama-horizons amabili wesikhashana, okungu-2025–2045 (okuphawulwe ngo-2035) kanye no-2045–2065 (okuphawulwe ngo-2055) ukuze kuhlinzekwe imiphumela yesikhathi esifushane nesimaphakathi. Kucatshangelwe izindlela ezimbili zokugxilisa ingqondo ezimele, okungukuthi, i-RCP4.5 ne-RCP8.5 (van Vuuren et al., 2011). Okuqaphelekayo, ama-GCM ayishumi nanye asetshenzisiwe kulolu cwaningo (Ithebula 1). Imiphumela yethulwe kusetshenziswa i ensemble indlela yokwenza (Semenov futhi Stratonovovich, 2010; Wallach et al., 2018) lapho amanani amaphakathi amamethrikhi aqageliwe (isb, ukugodola nokushisa okunqwabelanayo noma amathuba) enziwe ikhompuyutha yiwo wonke amamodeli asetshenziswe ezinyathelweni ezilandelayo. Amazinga okushisa anjalo ngehora ukuze kubalwe izinkomba ze-agroclimatic alingisiwe kusukela kwansuku zonke kusetshenziswa iphakheji ye-chillR (Luedeling, 2019).
Ithebula 1
ITHEBULA 1. Uhlu lwamamodeli wesimo sezulu somhlaba wonke asetshenziswe kulolu cwaningo.
Ukuze uqhathanise ukuguquguquka kwe-agroclimatic ezimeni zamanje nezesikhathi esizayo, izindawo zangempela zeziteshi zesimo sezulu ziqhathaniswe namaphoyinti azo aseduze asuka kugridi. Ubukhulu, ubuncane bamabanga, kanye nesilinganiso samabanga ukusuka eziteshini zesimo sezulu ukuya ezindaweni eziseduze kakhulu kugridi bekungu-3.87, 0.26, no-2.14 km, ngokulandelana. Kuzo zonke izimo (izimo zamanje nezesikhathi esizayo), indawo ehlanganisiwe ezungeze iziteshi zesimo sezulu ezicatshangelwayo (okungukuthi, engeqile kumakhilomitha angama-50 ukusuka esiteshini esiseduze kakhulu sezulu) ibalwe kusetshenziswa indlela yokulinganisa ibanga ephambene.
Imiphumela
Ukuqoqwa Kwezipholile
Njengoba kubonisiwe ngenhla, amamodeli amabili asetshenzisiwe ukubala ukunqwabelana kwamakhaza, okungukuthi, i-Utah (amayunithi abandayo) kanye nemodeli ye-Dynamic (ngezingxenye). Kusetshenziswa amanani amaphakathi engqikithi yokugodola eqoqwe phakathi naso sonke isikhathi kuzo zonke iziteshi, kutholwe ukuhlobana okuphezulu kakhulu phakathi kwazo zombili izinkomba (R2 = 0.95, I-Supplementary Figure 1). Ngakho-ke, imiphumela yethulwa kusetshenziswa eyodwa kuphela yazo (izingxenye). Umfanekiso we-2 ikhombisa amaphethini wendawo wezingxenye zokugodola phakathi nezikhathi ezicatshangelwayo ezihlukene. Esimeni samanje, singabona ukuthi kunezindawo ezimbalwa zejografi ezinqwabelene ngokubanda okuphezulu (≥75 izingxenye), njenge-Ebro Valley, enyakatho ye-Extremadura, nezinye izindawo zangaphakathi eMedithera. Esigodini saseMedithera naseGuadalquivir kuphela, izindawo ezifudumele ezinokunqwabelana okubandayo ngaphansi kwezingxenye ezingu-60 (ngisho nangaphansi kwama-50 kwezinye izindawo ezingazodwa) zitholakala. Izimo zesikhathi esizayo zibonisa ukwehla okucacile kokubandayo okunqwabelene ezindaweni ezifudumele, enyakatho ye-Extremadura nakwezinye izindawo zangaphakathi ze-Mediterranean. Ukuncipha kokugodola okunqwabelene e-Ebro Valley kuzokhiqizwa engxenyeni esempumalanga yaleyo ndawo, kuyilapho ingaphakathi lizoqongelela amakhaza abalulekile ebusika ngisho nasezimweni ezimbi kakhulu (isb, 2055_RCP8.5). Imithelela yokufudumala kwembulunga ngokuncipha kwamakhaza asebusika ishube kakhulu kusimo sika-2055_RCP8.5 njengoba kulindelekile. Amathebula angezekile 1-4 bonisa ukunqwabelana okumaphakathi kwesikhathi esicatshangwayo (1 kuNovemba kuya ekupheleni kukaFebruwari) ngezingxenye zazo zonke izindawo namamodeli kuzo zonke izimo ezicatshangwayo zesikhathi esizayo. Isilinganiso senani lemiphumela yamamodeli ayishumi nanye liyaboniswa, kanye nokubanda okubhalisiwe okuqongelelwe isikhathi sika-2000–2020 ngezinjongo zokuqhathanisa.
Umfanekiso we-2
ISIGABA 2. Ukuqoqwa kokuphola ezindaweni eziyinhloko zokukhiqiza amatshe e-Spain ngesimo samanje (cishe 2000–2020), ama-horizons ezikhathi ezimbili (2025–2045 kanye no-2045–2065) kanye nezimo ezimbili zesikhathi esizayo (RCP4.5 kanye ne-RCP8.5).
Ukuhlola ukuthi ingabe ukwehla okulindelwe kokubandayo kuzoba nomthelela ofanayo ezindaweni kuye ngokunqwabelana kwazo kwamanje, iziteshi zesimo sezulu ezingama-270 zenziwe, zihlukaniswa ngokwengxenye yenani eliqoqiwe esimweni samanje: ukunqwabelana okuphansi (< izingxenye ezingama-60, iziteshi ezingama-34), ukunqwabelana okuphakathi (phakathi kwezingxenye ezingama-60 nezingama-80, iziteshi eziyi-121), kanye nokuqongelela okuphezulu (okungaphezulu kwezingxenye ezingama-80, iziteshi eziyi-115). Umfanekiso we-3 ikhombisa amabhokisi ezingxenye eziqoqiwe kuzo zonke izimo zezinhlobo ezintathu zezindawo. Ukwehla kokunqwabelana kwamakhaza njengoba kulindelekile ngokwesimo ngasinye. Mayelana nomehluko wamanani amaphakathi phakathi kwezimo zamanje nezesikhathi esizayo, kubonakala sengathi izinhlobo ezintathu zezindawo zinikeza ukuziphatha okufanayo (okusho ukuthi ukulahlekelwa ngamaphesenti kuphezulu ezindaweni zokunqwabelana eziphansi). Nokho, ukusabalala kwedatha kuhluke kakhulu. Izindawo ezinqwabelanayo ezibandayo neziphansi zibonisa ukuhlakazeka okuphansi (okuthile okungaphandle endaweni ephansi yokusabalalisa) kunezindawo eziphakathi nendawo, eziveza ukuhlakazeka okuphezulu kodwa kungabikho izinto eziphuma ngaphandle. Ukuhlaziywa kwalezi zindawo ezingaphandle kwezindawo ezibandayo kakhulu kuveza ukuthi i-outlier yazo zonke izimo ezine zesikhathi esizayo ihambisana nendawo engaphakathi ye-Mediterranean (Játiva). Ezindaweni ezinqwabelanayo ezibandayo, okungaphandle kuzo zonke izimo (kuhlanganise nesimo samanje) kuhambisana nendawo elisogwini lweMedithera (Almería). Izinto eziphumayo zokuphela okuphezulu kokusatshalaliswa ezindaweni ezinqwabelene amakhaza aphansi zihambisana nezindawo zangaphakathi eMedithera (okungukuthi, iMontesa, iCallosa de Sarriá, ne-Murcia) nakuba zingaba ama-artifacts njengoba izilinganiso zibikezela ukunqwabelana kwamakhaza amaningi esikhathini esizayo kunamanje. isimo. Angase abangelwe umehluko wesimo sezulu ongaba khona phakathi kwendawo yangempela yeziteshi zesimo sezulu kanye nendawo yazo eseduze kakhulu kugridi ukuze kuqalwe ngokuzayo.
Umfanekiso we-3
ISIGABA 3. Amabhokisi okugodola anqwabelene kuzo zonke izimo endaweni ephansi (<60 izingxenye), okumaphakathi (phakathi kwezingxenye ezingu-60 nezingu-80), kanye nokuphezulu (>izingxenye ezingu-80) eziteshini zokunqwabelana ezibandayo, okubhekiselwe esimeni samanje.
Ukushisa Ukunqwabelana
Ukunqwabelana kokushisa kubalwe kusetshenziswa amamodeli amabili (okungukuthi, amamodeli e-Richardson kanye ne-Anderson) ngokufanayo ukuze kuqoqwe amakhaza. Kuphinde kwatholakala ukuhlobana okuphezulu phakathi kwemiphumela yawo womabili amamodeli (R2 = 0.998, I-Supplementary Figure 2). Ngakho-ke, imiphumela yethulwa kusetshenziswa kuphela imiphumela yemodeli ye-Anderson. Umfanekiso we-4 ikhombisa amaphethini wendawo we-GDH emaphakathi ezikhathini ezicatshangelwayo ezahlukahlukene. Zonke izimo eziphathelene ne-GDH zibonakala zihlobana ngokuphambene nezimo ezihambisanayo zokunqwabelana kwazo (Umfanekiso we-2). Izindawo lapho ukunqwabelana kwamakhaza kuphansi khona manje kukhona ukushisa okuphezulu futhi okuphambene nalokho. Njengoba ukunqwabelana kwamakhaza kuncipha kuzimo zesikhathi esizayo, ukunqwabelana kokushisa kuyanda ngokulinganayo endaweni ngayinye. Isibonelo, i-Pearson corelation coefficient phakathi kokunqwabelana kokubandayo okulahlekile kanye nokunqwabelana kokushisa okuzuziwe kwezimo zamanje nezingu-2055_RCP8.5 ngu-0.68 (p-inani <1e-15).
Umfanekiso we-4
ISIGABA 4. Ukunqwabelana kokushisa ezindaweni eziyinhloko zokukhiqiza amatshe e-Spain ngesimo samanje (cishe 2000–2020), ama-horizons ezikhathi ezimbili (2025–2045 kanye no-2045–2065) kanye nezimo ezimbili zesikhathi esizayo (RCP4.5 kanye ne-RCP8.5)
Njengasesimeni sokugodola, imiphumela yokwenyuka kwe-GDH iqine kakhulu kusimo sika-2055_RCP8.5 njengoba kulindelekile. Amathebula angezekile 5-8 bonisa isilinganiso sokushisa esinqwabelene esikhathini esicatshangwayo (1st January–8th April) e-GDH kuzo zonke izindawo namamodeli kuzo zonke izimo ezicatshangelwayo. Inani elimaphakathi lemiphumela yamamodeli ayishumi nanye liyaboniswa, kanye nokushisa okubhalisiwe okuqoqiwe kwesikhathi sika-2000–2020 ngezinjongo zokuqhathanisa.
Amathuba Ezehlakalo Zokushisa Okuyisithwathwa kanye Nokushisa Okungavamile
Amathuba ezenzakalo zesithwathwa njengoba kuchazwe ngenhla akhonjiswe ku Umfanekiso we-5 ukuqhathanisa amasonto 2–10 ezimo zamanje kanye ne-2035_RCP4.5 kanye ne-2055_RCP8.5 (amathuba kuphela ≥ 10%). Esimeni samanje, amathuba abalulekile ezenzakalo zesithwathwa aqoshwa ikakhulukazi ezindaweni zase-Ebro Valley kodwa nasenyakatho ye-Extremadura nasezindaweni zangaphakathi zeMedithera. Amathuba esithwathwa ancipha ukusuka evikini lesi-2 kuye kwayi-10 njengoba kulindelekile, kodwa ezinye izindawo e-Ebro Valley zisanikeza amathuba amakhulu okuba nesithwathwa ngeviki le-10. Izimo zesikhathi esizayo ezihlaziyiwe Umfanekiso we-5 yizona ezinethemba elikhulu (okungukuthi, 2035_RCP4.5) nezingenathemba (okungukuthi, 2055_RCP8.5), ngokulandelana kwazo, ngokwenyuka kwezinga lokushisa. Amathuba ezenzakalo zesithwathwa ayashabalala ku-Extremadura futhi ehla kuzo zonke izindawo, kuyilapho izindawo ezisanda kuncishiswa ze-Ebro Valley nezinye izindawo ezingazodwa phakathi nezwe laseMedithera zibonisa amathuba angaphezu kuka-10% ngisho nasevikini le-10. Njengesimo samanje, amathuba okuba nesithwathwa ayancipha ukusuka amasonto 2 kuya ku-10. Ngokuphawulekayo, izimo ze-2035_RCP4.5 kanye no-2055_RCP8.5 ziveza izithombe ezifanayo mayelana namathuba ezenzakalo zesithwathwa, okuveza ukuthi i-Ebro Valley kanye nezinye izindawo zangaphakathi zeMedithera zizobhekana nezenzakalo zesithwathwa kuzo zonke izimo ezicatshangelwayo.
Umfanekiso we-5
ISIGABA 5. Amathuba ezenzakalo zesithwathwa ezindaweni eziyinhloko zokukhiqiza amatshe e-Spain amasonto 2 kuya ku-10 okwamanje, izimo ezingu-2035_RCP4.5 nezingu-2055_RCP8.5.
Ingxoxo nesiphetho
Lolu cwaningo luzamile ukuveza izithelo zamatshe eziyinhloko ezikhiqiza izindawo zaseSpain kusetshenziswa idatha yomlando ye-agroclimatic (ikakhulukazi amazinga okushisa) avela eziteshini zesimo sezulu ezingu-270 asakazeka kuzo zonke izindawo ezinjalo futhi aqhathanise imiphumela nokuqagela okuzayo kuma-horizons amabili kanye nezimo ze-RCP. Izindawo zocwaningo zakhethwa ngokusekelwe eqinisweni lokuthi izinqumo zamanje nezesikhathi esizayo ezizokwenziwa mayelana nokutshalwa kwezithelo zamatshe (okungukuthi, ipentshisi, ibhilikosi, iplamu, ne-sweet cherry) zizothathwa ikakhulukazi ezindaweni ezikhiqizayo zamanje, lapho ulwazi kanye nezithelo ezomisiwe. ubuchwepheshe bokukhulisa lezi zitshalo bufakwe ngokuqinile. Ngakho-ke, lolu cwaningo alugxili kwezinye izindawo ezingase zibe khona zokutshalwa kwezithelo zamatshe.
Okuguquguqukayo okubalulekile okubaliwe, okungukuthi, ukugodola nokushisa okunqwabelanayo, kuveza ukuthi izindawo ezicatshangelwayo zihluke kakhulu endaweni yokubuka yesimo sezulu kanye nokuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzoba nomthelela obalulekile, ikakhulukazi ezindaweni ezifudumele ngisho nasesikhathini esimaphakathi. Amamodeli asetshenziselwa ukubala noma iyiphi yazo (okungukuthi, i-Utah ne-Dynamic yokubandayo kanye no-Richardson no-Anderson ngokunqwabelana kokushisa) abonisa ukuhlobana okuphezulu kakhulu njengoba kutholwe ngaphambilini URuiz et al. (2007, 2018).
Ukwehliswa okubalulekile kokuqoqwa kokubandayo kulindeleke kuzo zonke izindawo, ezivumelana nezifundo zangaphambilini ezindaweni zaseMedithera (Benmoussa et al., 2018, 2020; URodríguez et al., 2019; U-Delgado no-al., I-2021; I-Fraga ne-Santos, 2021). Ukuncipha kokuqoqwa kwamakhaza kuzofana namanani aphelele kuzo zonke izifunda ezihloliwe, kodwa ezifudumele kakhulu (okungukuthi, indawo yaseMedithera kanye neGuadalquivir Valley) zingathinteka kakhulu mayelana nokufaneleka kokutshalwa kwezithelo zamatshe njengoba isimo sazo samanje sesivele siwumkhawulo. ama-cultivar amaningi. Ezindaweni ezibandayo ezifana ne-Ebro Valley kanye ne-Extremadura, ukwehla kwamakhaza ngeke kube isithiyo sokuqhubeka uhlakulelwa, nakuba kwezinye izindawo ezibandayo e-Extremadura naseMedithera, ukwehla kwamakhaza kuzoba kubi kakhulu kunakwezinye izindawo ezibandayo. Kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi, ngokusho Umfanekiso we-3, ukwehla okungazelelwe kokunqwabelana kokubandayo phakathi kwesimo samanje nekusasa eliseduze kuyabonwa. Ukulungiswa kwegridi esetshenzisiwe, ngisho noma inhle (~5 km) ingaba imbangela yalo mphumela. Eminye imithombo engaba khona yokungafani eholela kumehluko oyihaba phakathi kwamanani aqagelwayo kanye namanani angempela kungaba ukuchema okusele kwemodeli ye-GCM okungancishiswanga ngokuphelele phakathi nenqubo yokwehlisa, noma iqiniso lokuthi siqhathanisa izibalo ezenziwa namazinga okushisa ehora langempela (okungukuthi, lamanje. isimo) kanye nezibalo ezenziwa ngamajika okushisa afanelekile asuselwa kumazinga okushisa ahlongozwayo nsuku zonke kanye nobuncane bokushisa (Linville, 1990) ngezimo zesikhathi esizayo. Ukwehla okufanayo kungazelelwe esikhathini esizayo esiseduze nakho kwabonwa nguRodríguez et al., owabikezela ukwehla kwezingxenye ezibandayo ezifika kwezingama-30 esikhathini sika-2021–2050 kwezinye izindawo eSpain (URodríguez et al., 2019), evumelana nemiphumela yethu. Benmoussa et al. (2020), Delgado et al. (2021), Futhi I-Fraga and Santos (2021) iphinde yabika ukwehla okungazelelwe phakathi kwezimo zomlando nezesikhathi esizayo eTunisia, Portugal, nase-Asturias (eNyakatho yeSpain), ngokulandelana. Njengasesimeni sethu, lolu cwaningo luphinde lwabonisa ukuthi awukho umehluko obalulekile wokugodola okunqwabelene ovela esikhathini esizayo esiseduze kungakhathaliseki ukuthi i-RCP icatshangwa kanjani. Ngokuphambene ukuze kuphole ukunqwabelana, ukunqwabelana kokushisa kuzokhuphuka kuzo zonke izimo (ikakhulukazi ngo-2055_RCP8.5 njengoba kulindelekile), futhi ukuvela kwakho kuphambene nalokhu kokunqwabelana kwamakhaza. Lokhu kwabuye kwabonwa ngu I-Fraga and Santos (2021) ngePortugal.
Amathuba esithwathwa kanye nemicimbi yokushisa okungavamile emavikini lapho engathinta khona ngokubalulekile isivuno nokukhiqizwa (isb., isithwathwa sekwephuzile noma imicimbi yokushisa okungavamile ngaphambi kokukhululwa kwe-endodormancy) abalwe futhi. Ngokwesimo samanje, izehlakalo zesithwathwa zivame kakhulu ezindaweni ezibandayo, njengoba kulindelekile. Izehlakalo zokushisa okungavamile emasontweni abalulekile ziye zagxila endaweni yaseMedithera phakathi neminyaka edlule kodwa ngamathuba aphansi kakhulu. Izilinganiso zesikhathi esizayo zalezi zinhlobonhlobo zibonisa ukuthi izehlakalo zesithwathwa emasontweni lapho ukukhiqizwa kwezithelo zamatshe kungathinteka.UMiranda et al., 2005; UJulian et al., 2007) izokwehla njengoba ikhulunyaka ithuthuka futhi izoncipha ku-RCP8.5, evumelana nezifundo ezedlule (Leolini et al., 2018). Kodwa-ke, ezinye izindawo ze-Ebro Valley kanye nezindawo ezithile zangaphakathi zezindawo zaseMedithera zisazobhekana nenani elikhulu lezehlakalo zesithwathwa phakathi namasonto akhona ngisho nasezimweni ezifudumele kakhulu (okungukuthi, 2055_RCP8.5, Umfanekiso we-5). Incazelo yomcimbi wesithwathwa ngokuya ngezinga lokushisa kanye nesikhathi sokuchayeka ihlobene eduze nesigaba se-phenological se-cultivar esebenzayo (UMiranda et al., 2005). Uma kubhekwa inhlobonhlobo enkulu yezinhlobo zezithelo zamatshe ezingaba khona, kusukela phansi kakhulu kuye kwephezulu kakhulu, kanye nenani lezindawo ezihlaziywe, ukusuka emakhazeni kuye ekufudumaleni, ukusungula izincazelo zezenzakalo zesithwathwa/indawo ethile akwenzeki kulolu cwaningo ngenxa yomthamo omkhulu we ulwazi oluhilelekile. Lezi zinhlobo zezifundo zivame ukwenziwa kusetshenziswa izindawo ezimbalwa kanye/noma izimila, njengalena eyenziwa Lorite et al. (2020) ama-alimondi eSpain, UFernandez et al. (2020) e-Chile, ebale amazinga okushisa angaphansi kuka-0°C ngesikhathi sokuqhakaza kwezinhlobo zezihlahla zezithelo ezivuthuluka ezitshalwa endaweni ngayinye kweziyisishiyagalolunye ezicatshangelwayo, noma Parker et al. (2021) abacabangele amazinga okushisa ahlukene kanye nezigaba ze-phenological zezinhlobo ezintathu (okungukuthi, ama-alimondi, ukwatapheya, namawolintshi) kodwa futhi benza isimo esijwayelekile sendawo ngokucabangela amazinga okushisa amathathu (0, −2, kanye +2°C) kanye nesikhathi sokuchayeka. Ukukhetha kwethu u-−1°C kanye namahora okungenani amathathu alandelanayo kuhloswe ekuboniseni ukuvela kwesithwathwa esikhundleni sokuhlobanisa umonakalo othile kuma-cultivar athile, okungase kube ucwaningo oluhlukile. Le ncazelo yamukelwa ngemva kokubuyisa imibono yochwepheshe. Ngenxa yenani elibanzi lama-cultivar ngokwe-CR kanye ne-HR kanye nokwehlukahlukana kwezimo zokushisa ezindaweni ezicatshangelwe kulolu cwaningo, sikhethe lawo maviki (kusuka ku-2 kuye kwayi-10) lapho zonke (noma eziningi) izinhlanganisela zohlobo/indawo zingaba khona. sengozini yokuthola umonakalo wesithwathwa ngokuya ngesigaba sabo se-phenological. Ngezinjongo zokwenza izinqumo, abakhiqizi kufanele bakhethe imephu efanelana kangcono nesimo sabo esithile (okungukuthi, i-cultivar/indawo) ukuze benze isinqumo esifanele. Ngokuvamile, izindawo ezifudumele kanye/noma izimila ezisheshe ziqhakaze zizohlotshaniswa namasonto angaphambili ebangeni elicatshangelwayo, kanti izindawo ezibandayo kanye/noma izimila eziqhakaza sekwephuzile zizohlotshaniswa namasonto akamuva ohlwini olucatshangelwayo. Imicimbi yokushisa engavamile ebusika engakhuphula ukukhululwa kwe-endodormancy kwangaphambi kwesikhathi, okuthinta kabi ukukhiqizwa (UViti noMonteleone, ngo-1995; U-Rodrigo no-Herrero, ngo-2002; U-Ladwig et al., 2019), izokwengezwa ikakhulukazi eGuadalquivir Valley, ezindaweni ezisogwini lwaseMedithera, kanye nase-Extremadura nakwezinye izindawo ze-Ebro Valley maphakathi noma ngasekupheleni kuka-February (Umfanekiso we-6). Ukulinganisa inani lale methrikhi ngokuvamile akubhekwana nazo ezincwadini kodwa kungase kubangele izinkinga ezibalulekile zokukhiqiza ezindaweni ezifudumele njengoba kuye kwaphawulwa eminyakeni yamuva nje. Futhi, ukusetha u-25°C noma ngaphezulu okungenani amahora amathathu alandelanayo ukuze kuchazwe isenzakalo esinjalo kwakugqugquzelwa imibono yochwepheshe. Ngokufanayo namathuba ezenzakalo zesithwathwa, sikhethe lawo maviki (kusuka ku-49 kuye ku-8) lapho zonke (noma eziningi) izinhlanganisela zokulima/indawo zingase zibe lula ukuthi zithintwe yilezi zenzakalo ngokwesigaba sazo se-phenological. Ngokuvamile, izindawo ezifudumele kanye/noma izimila ezisheshe ziqhakaze zizohlotshaniswa namasonto angaphambili ebangeni elicatshangelwayo, kanti izindawo ezibandayo kanye/noma izimila eziqhakaza sekwephuzile zizohlotshaniswa namasonto akamuva ohlwini olucatshangelwayo.
Amamethrikhi e-agroclimatic abalwe kulolu cwaningo ahlinzeka ngolwazi olubalulekile kubakhiqizi ukuze bakhethe izimila ezifanele kakhulu kuyo yonke indawo ekhiqizayo ngokombono ovumelana nezimo. I-cultivar ngayinye ine-CRs yayo yokwephula i-endodormancy (Campoy et al., 2011b; UFadón et al., 2020b). Ukuncipha kokunqwabelana kwamakhaza njengoba kulindelekile ezimweni ezizayo kungase kubangele ukuthi izimila ezitshaliwe manje zingagcwalisi i-CR yazo ezindaweni ezithile, ikakhulukazi lezo zaseMedithera kanye nezindawo zaseGuadalquivir Valley, esezivele zifudumele. Lokhu kuzobandakanya ukukhululwa kwe-endormancy okungaphelele okuthinta izihlahla zezithelo ezicini ezintathu eziyinhloko, okungukuthi, ukuwohloka kwezimbali zezimbali (futhi ngaleyo ndlela zingaqhakazi kahle), ukubambezeleka kokuqhakaza nokuhluma, nokuntuleka kokufana kuzo zombili izinqubo, okuholela ezinkingeni ezinkulu zokukhiqiza (Legave et al., 1983; Erez, 2000; Atkinson et al., 2013). Konke lokhu kungaveza ukulahlekelwa okubalulekile kwezomnotho kubakhiqizi. Kulo mongo, ulwazi mayelana ne-CR yezinhlobo ezahlukene zezitshalo lubalulekile nakuba ulwazi olukhona njengamanje luyindlala ezihlahleni zezithelo zamatshe (UFadón et al., 2020b), kuhlanganise nepentshisi (UMaulión et al., 2014), ibhilikosi (Ruiz et al., 2007), ipulamu (Ruiz et al., 2018) kanye ne-sweet cherry (I-Alburquerque et al., 2008).
Ezindaweni ezifudumele njenge-Mediterranean kanye ne-Guadalquivir Valley, lapho amakhaza anqwabelene engaphansi kwezingxenye ezingu-60 esimweni samanje, kutshalwa izitshalo ezisheshe zivuthwe ezine-CR phakathi kwama-30 nama-60. Ukugcwaliseka kwe-CR kulawa ma-cultivar kungaba sengozini kuzo zonke izimo zesikhathi esizayo ezihlaziyiwe (Umfanekiso we-2). Ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukufaneleka okuvumelana nezimo kwezinhlobo/izimila ezihlukene kulezi zindawo, kungase kudingeke ukuthuthwa, futhi ezinye zezimila kufanele zisuswe ziye ezindaweni ezivaliwe (izindawo ezingaphakathi endaweni yaseMedithera noma ngase-Extremadura esimweni saseGuadalquivir Valley) lapho i-CR izogcwaliseka khona nasezimeni ezizayo, futhi izingozi zesithwathwa kulindeleke ukuba zehle. Kulo mongo, ukwethulwa noma ukuthuthukiswa kwamacultivar ane-CR ephansi kakhulu kuba umgomo obalulekile okufanele ucatshangelwe ezinhlelweni zokuzalanisa izinhlobo ezikhona, ikakhulukazi ukuze zifanele izindawo ezifudumele lapho ukujwayela kwama-cultivar amanje kuzoba sengozini esikhathini esizayo. izimo. Uma kungenjalo, lezi zindawo ngeke zikwazi ukugcina imisebenzi yazo yokukhiqiza neyomnotho ehlobene nokukhiqizwa kwezithelo zamatshe. Ngaphandle kwalokhu, izinqubo namasu ahlukene ezolimo nawo angasetshenziswa ukuze kuncishiswe ukwehla kokunqwabelana kwamakhaza kulezi zindawo okungenani endaweni. Ukusetshenziswa kwama-bio-stimulants ukwephula i-endodormancy ngaphambi kokugcwalisa i-CR noma ukusetshenziswa kwamanetha e-shading ngesikhathi sezigaba ezihlukene zokulala sekuchazwe ezindaweni ezifudumele zokukhiqiza izithelo zamatshe (UGilreath noBuchanan, ngo-1981; Erez, 1987; I-Costa et al., I-2004; Campoy et al., 2010; Petri et al., 2014), nakuba ucwaningo olwengeziwe kanye nokwenza kahle kufanele kwenziwe ukuze lezi zindlela ziphumelele kakhulu futhi zikhuthaze ukusetshenziswa kwazo okuhlelekile. Ngokuphambene, ezindaweni ezibandayo kakhulu ezikhiqizayo njenge-Ebro Valley, enyakatho ye-Extremadura, nezinye izindawo zangaphakathi endaweni yaseMedithera, kulindeleke izenzakalo ezimbalwa zesithwathwa, ezingavumela izitshalo zangaphambili kunalezo zamanje, ezingakhulisa inani lezimila ezisebenzayo futhi, ngakho-ke, okunikezwayo emakethe okunemiphumela emihle yezomnotho endaweni. Sekukonke, kuzo zonke izindawo ezikhiqizayo, kubalulekile ukuthi kubhekwe izimila ezitshalwa njengamanje futhi kuhlaziywe esekugcineni kokugcwaliseka kwe-CR yazo ukuze kufakwe esikhundleni noma ukuzinyakazisa noma ukwethula izindlela zokuphatha ezichazwe ngenhla ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukuzivumelanisa nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu esisha. izimo.
Mayelana nokunqwabelana kokushisa, izimo zesikhathi esizayo zibikezela ukwanda kwalokhu kuguquguquka kuzo zonke izindawo ezicatshangelwayo (Umfanekiso we-4). Ezindaweni ezifudumele nezimaphakathi, lokhu kuhlukahluka akunqumi njengokunqwabelana kwamakhaza kodwa kungaba nomthelela ofanele ku-phenology, kukhiqize kusengaphambili izinsuku zokuqhakaza futhi ngaleyo ndlela kwandise ingozi engaba khona yokulimala kwesithwathwa (Mosedale et al., 2015; Unterberger et al., 2018; Ma et al., 2019). Njengephuzu elengeziwe, lokhu kuqhakaza kwezimbali kuzobandakanya nokuvuthwa kusengaphambili (UPeñuelas noFilella, ngo-2001; Campoy et al., 2011b), okufanele kucatshangelwe abakhiqizi ukuze babeke imikhiqizo yabo ezimakethe ngamasu. Ngokuphambene nalokho, ezindaweni ezibandayo, ukuntuleka kokuqoqwa kokushisa esimweni samanje kungalimaza ukuthuthukiswa kwe-phenological kanye nokukhula kwezithelo (Fadón et al., 2020a). Lezi zindawo ezibandayo njengamanje zizothandwa ukwanda kokuqoqwa kokushisa okubikezelwe kuzimo zesikhathi esizayo. Njengoba kuboniswe ku Umfanekiso we-6, izehlakalo zokushisa okungavamile zizovama kakhulu ezimeni ezizayo ngezinsuku lapho izihlahla zezithelo zingakakhiphi i-endormancy, ikakhulukazi ezindaweni ezifudumele njengeGuadalquivir Valley kanye nezindawo zaseMedithera. Lezi zenzakalo zingaba nomthelela omubi kakhulu lapho i-CR imbozwe kancane (cishe ama-60-70%), idala ukukhululwa kwe-dormancy okungaphelele okungase kuhlanganise izinkinga zezitshalo nokuqhakaza, okunomthelela omubi esethi yezithelo kanye nesivuno (U-Rodrigo no-Herrero, ngo-2002; Campoy et al., 2011a).
Kunoma ikuphi, izinguquko ezimisweni zokugodola nokushisa azinawo umthelela ofanayo kuwo wonke ama-cultivar nasezindaweni zawo njengoba eminye imiphumela yesinxephezelo ingenzeka mayelana nokuqoqwa kwebhalansi kokubandayo/ukushisa ngokwemibandela yokukhululwa kwe-endodormancy noma ukubikezela kwezinsuku zokuqhakaza (UPapa et al., 2014). Ngaphandle kwalokho, ukuhlukaniswa kwezindawo ze-agroclimatic ngesilinganiso sendawo kungase kudinge ukulinganiswa okuthile kwedatha ngenxa yokuhlukahluka kwendawo (U-Lorite et al., 2020) ukwenza izinqumo ezingcono kakhulu mayelana nokukhetha okuhle kwe-cultivar. Imiphumela evezwe kulolu cwaningo ingaba wusizo hhayi kuphela ekukhiqizweni kwezithelo zamatshe kodwa nakwezinye izithelo ezipholile ezinokubaluleka okukhulu ezindaweni ezikhona, isb, imivini yaseLa Rioja (Ebro Valley) noma kwezinye. Le miphumela ingaba yisisekelo sezinhlelo zokusekela izinqumo ukusiza abakhiqizi ekwenzeni izinqumo zamasu aphelele (isb, ukukhetha izimila, ukufuduka, kanye nokuqaliswa kwezinqubo zokulawula ukunciphisa) esikhathini esimaphakathi nesikhathi eside.
Isitatimende Sokutholakala Kwemininingwane
Iminikelo yokuqala ethulwe ocwaningweni ifakiwe esihlokweni/Izinto ezengeziwe, eminye imibuzo ingaqondiswa kubabhali abahambisanayo.
Iminikelo Yomlobi
U-MC, JG-B, JG, kanye no-DR bakhulelwa futhi baklama ucwaningo. I-MC inikeze idatha ye-agroclimatic yesimo samanje. I-JAE yenza izibalo zezimo zesikhathi esizayo. U-JAE no-DR babhala ingxenye eyinhloko yombhalo wesandla. I-JE inikeze ulwazi mayelana nezici ze-agronomic yobuchwepheshe. I-JG iphathe iphrojekthi yokusungula exhase lolu cwaningo ngezimali. Bonke ababhali babuyekeze idokhumenti futhi bagunyaza inguqulo ethunyelwe.
Izimali
Usekelo lwezezimali luhlinzekwe nguMnyango Wezolimo, Ukudoba kanye Nokudla wase-Spain nge-Innovation Project "Ukujwayela umkhakha wezithelo zamatshe ekushintsheni kwesimo sezulu" (REF: MAPA-PNDR 20190020007385) kanye ne-PRIMA, uhlelo olusekelwa ngaphansi kwe-H2020, Uhlaka Lwe-European Union. uhlelo lokucwaninga nokusungula (iphrojekthi ye-“AdaMedOr”; inombolo yesibonelelo i-PCI2020-112113 yoMnyango Wezesayensi Nokusungula Entsha waseSpain).
Ukungqubuzana kwezintshisekelo
Abalobi bamemezela ukuthi ucwaningo lwaluqhutshwa ngokungabikho kobudlelwane bezohwebo noma zezimali ezingase zithathwe njengokungqubuzana okungase kube khona.
Inothi Lomshicileli
Zonke izimangalo ezivezwe kulesi sihloko ezababhali kuphela futhi azimele lezo zezinhlangano ezisebenzisana nazo, noma ezabashicileli, abahleli nababuyekezi. Noma yimuphi umkhiqizo ongase uhlolwe kulesi sihloko, noma isimangalo esingenziwa umkhiqizi wawo, asiqinisekisiwe noma sigunyazwe umshicileli.
Ukuvuma
Sibonga wonke amalungu e-Spanish Operative Group "Ukujwayela umkhakha wezithelo zamatshe ekushintsheni kwesimo sezulu" (FECOAM, FECOAV, ANECOOP, Frutaria, Basol Fruits, Fundación Universidad-Empresa de la Región de Murcia, Fundación Cajamar) ngomnikelo wabo obalulekile ukuthuthukiswa kwephrojekthi. Sibonga i-AEMET ngedatha etholakala ekhasini layo lewebhu (http://www.aemet.es/es/serviciosclimaticos/cambio_climat/datos_diarios).
Izinto ezengeziwe
I-Supplementary Material yalesi sihloko ingatholakala ku-intanethi ku: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2022.842628/full#supplementary-material
Umfanekiso Owengeziwe 1 | Ukuhlobana phakathi kwezingxenye eziqoqiwe kanye namayunithi abandayo esimweni samanje kuzo zonke iziteshi zesimo sezulu.
Umfanekiso Owengeziwe 2 | Ukuhlobana phakathi kwesilinganiso esiqoqiwe se-GDH samamodeli we-Anderson kanye ne-Richardson esimeni samanje kuzo zonke iziteshi zesimo sezulu.
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Amagama angukhiye: Prunus, isithelo samatshe, ukujwayela, ukunqwabelana kokubandayo, i-phenology, ingozi yesithwathwa, ukukhetha kwezinhlobonhlobo, amamethrikhi e-agroclimatic
Isikhombo: I-Egea JA, Caro M, García-Brunton J, Gambín J, Egea J kanye no-Ruiz D (2022) I-Agroclimatic Metrics Yezindawo Ezikhiqiza Izithelo Zetshe Eziyinhloko e-Spain Ezimweni Zamanje Nezizayo Zokuguquguquka Kwesimo Sezulu: Imithelela Evela Ephuzwini Lokubuka Eliguquguqukayo. Ngaphambili. Tshala iSci. 13:842628. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2022.842628
Utholiwe: 23 December 2021; Kuvunyelwe: I-02 Meyi 2022;
Kushicilelwe: 08 Juni 2022.
Kuhlelwe ngu:Hisayo Yamane, Kyoto University, Japan
Review yenziwe ngu:Liang Guo, Northwest A&F University, China
Kirti Rajagopalan, Washington State University, United States
Imininingwane © 2022 Egea, Caro, García-Brunton, Gambín, Egea and Ruiz. Lesi isiqephu sendatshana sokufinyelela okuvulekile esatshalaliswa ngaphansi kwemigomo ye Ilayisense ye-Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY). Ukusetshenziswa, ukusatshalaliswa noma ukukhiqizwa kwamanye amaforamu kuvumelekile, uma ngabe abalobi bokuqala kanye nabanikazi be-copyright bebhaliwe nokuthi ukushicilelwa kokuqala kulo magazini kubhalwe, ngokuhambisana nomkhuba wokufunda wemfundo. Akukho ukusetshenziswa, ukusatshalaliswa noma ukukhiqizwa okuvunyelwe okungavumelani nale migomo.
* Imibhalo: Jose A. Egea, jaegea@cebas.csic.es; UDavid Ruiz, druiz@cebas.csic.es
Umthombo: https://www.frontiersin.org