Yini elindele umkhakha kamanyolo ngonyaka ozayo? Sabelana ngengxenye yesu elikhulu labahlaziyi be-BCS bemakethe yaseRussia – ake sibone ukuthi izinto zizoba kanjani embonini iyonke, nokuthi yiziphi izibambiso ezizoba izintandokazi.
Umanyolo we-phosphate awukathintwa unswinyo
Izici eziyisisekelo zemakethe kamanyolo we-phosphate zihlala zizinzile. Izintengo zikamanyolo zehlile kusukela phezulu ngo-Q1-2 2022, kodwa zihlala zingaphezu kwesilinganiso seminyaka eminingi. Ngomthamo, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe (nokukhiqizwa) komanyolo we-phosphate akuzange kuthinteke.
Inkokhelo yokuthekelisa (okungenzeka isebenze kusukela ngo-2023) isethwe ngenani elizwakalayo lama-23.5%, futhi izokhokhiswa kuphela ngamanani angaphezu kuka-$450 ngethani. Izinga lentengo lamanje lingaphezu kwalo mkhawulo, kodwa umsebenzi ngeke ube phezulu kakhulu . Isici esibalulekile okufanele sicatshangelwe ukwehla kancane kancane kwentengo - ngokubona kwethu, imakethe kamanyolo yehlisa iprimiyamu yengozi ye-geopolitical.
Olunye udaba olubalulekile ukugcinwa kwamavolumu okuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, kuyilapho singazibandakanyi ezinye izici ezingezinhle (izijeziso, ukuvinjwa noma okunye ukwephulwa kokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe).
PhosAgro
Siphinda sigcizelela isincomo sethu se-HOLD samasheya we-PhosAgro futhi sehlise intengo yethu eqondisiwe ibe ngu-RUB 6,600 isuka ku-RUB 6,900. Izibikezelo zezinga lokushintshisana ezibuyekeziwe zehlisa kancane isilinganiso sethu.
Ukubuka kwenkampani
Icala lebhizinisi le-PhosAgro linqunywa kakhulu amanani. Njengoba amanani ehla kumarekhodi engxenye yokuqala ka-2022 (ngokwenkampani, ngokusho kwe-MAP athengiswa ngama- $ 777 ngethani i-FOB Baltic Sea engxenyeni yesithathu ka-2022 futhi ngama- $ 1,009 ngethani engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022. ).
Sigcina umbono wokungathathi hlangothi wenkampani, kodwa qaphela ukuphatha okuhle kwebhizinisi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, inkampani yabelana ngenzuzo ephezulu nabanikazi bamasheya. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, akekho okhansele izici eziyisisekelo, ngakho-ke uma (futhi nini) amanani ehla, kuzoba nenzuzo encane ezosatshalaliswa.
abashayeli bokukhula
• Akukho ukwehliswa kwamanani ngo-2023. Manje sibikezela ukuthi izintengo ze-MAP/DAP zizokwehla ngo-21% ngonyaka ka-2023 kanye no-25% yoy ngo-2024. Uma amanani ehlala emazingeni amanje, singalindela ukukhula kwenzuzo, izabelo kanye nokulinganiswa.
• I-ruble ebuthakathaka ingase isekele inzuzo yama-ruble (kubathengisi bangaphandle). Ngokwezilinganiso zethu, izinga lokushintshaniswa kwama-ruble ngo-2023 ngeke lishintshe ngempela uma liqhathaniswa no-2022 (ama-ruble angu-68.4 ngedola ngalinye nama-ruble angu-68.5 ngedola ngalinye).
Uma kubhekwa umthamo obalulekile wokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kuyo yonke imali engenayo, inani le-PhosAgro lizwela kakhulu izinga lokushintshisana. Ukuncipha kwe-ruble kuzoba nomthelela omuhle ekubalweni kwethu kwe-ruble.
Izingozi ezibalulekile
• Ukuphazamiseka kokuhlinzekwa kwezimpahla ezithunyelwa ngaphandle kungase kuphazamise izimakethe. Ingozi yezinhlawulo kulesi sigaba iyinto ecatshangelwayo, kodwa inikezwe imingcele ehlukahlukene kumanyolo waseRussia (ama-quota, njll.), lokhu akukwazi ukukhishwa ngokuphelele. Njengomthekelisi, i-PhosAgro iyazwela ekushintshashintsheni kwesilinganiso sokushintshisana kwe-USD/RUB.
Amanani emikhiqizo eyinhloko ye-PhosAgro, nakuba ehlile, asephezulu kakhulu. Ingozi yokulinganisa kwethu ihlobene nokukhuphuka kwamanani kamanyolo, ukwehla kwe-ruble nokuphikelela kwamanani aphakeme isikhathi eside.
Izinguquko ezinkulu
Ukushintshashintsha kwezimali, izindleko zokuphatha. Sibuyekeze ukukhula kwe-SG&A ngo-1H22 (+131% YoY) kanye nokwenza kuvame ngo-3Q2022 (kuphela +2% YoY).
Manje sikholwa wukuthi lokhu kugxuma kube yinto eyodwa nje ngenxa yezinkokhelo zamalungu ebhodi labaqondisi asebathatha umhlalaphansi. Ngokwengxenye, lo mphumela unciphisa ukukhuphuka kwamazinga okushintshaniswa kwama-ruble. Isibikezelo sika-2022 sizoba sibi kakhulu kunalokho ebesikubikezela ngaphambili, kanti neziqondiso ze-EBITDA zika-2023 nazo ziphansi kancane. Ngo-2024, ukuncishiswa kwezindleko zokuphatha kuzovala ngokuphelele umphumela wokubuyekezwa kohlobo lwemali kanye ne-EBITDA/amaholo azothuthuka.
Ukuhlola nokuncoma
Yehlisa kancane intengo eqondiwe, qinisekisa ukuthi “Bamba”. Ukulinganisa i-PhosAgro, sisebenzisa imodeli ye-DCF ene-WACC engu-16.4%, i-CoE engu-16.7% kanye nezinga lokukhula kwangemuva kokubikezela elingu-3%.
Imodeli yethu ibonisa inani elihlosiwe lezinyanga ezingu-12 zama-ruble angu-6,600. — “Bamba” (kucatshangelwa izibikezelo zethu zamanani namavolumu). Ngokusobala, ukulinganisa kwethu kuzwela futhi ezintengo zokuthekelisa (cishe u-70% wokuthengisa), umthamo wokuhlinzeka, amanani, amanani okushintshanisa, njll. Qaphela ukuthi amanani namanani abaluleke kakhulu ekuthengisweni kwenkampani kwamanye amazwe.