Uhulumeni wase-Russia uhlose ukwethula imisebenzi yokuthekelisa kumanyolo okokuqala ngqa futhi andise nezabelo zokuhlinzekwa kwawo phesheya. Lokhu kuzokuthinta kanjani ukuthunyelwa kukamanyolo, osekuvele kwehlile ngenxa yezijeziso zaseNtshonalanga, kuphenywe ngabakwaForbes
Ngokusho kweNhlangano Yezokudla Nezolimo yeNhlangano Yezizwe Ezihlangene (FAO), iRussia ngonyaka odlule ikleliswe endaweni yokuqala emhlabeni ekuthengisweni kukamanyolo we-nitrogen, yaba umthengisi wesibili ngobukhulu kamanyolo we-potash kanti owesithathu - i-phosphorus. Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yezigwegwe zaseNtshonalanga, izimpahla zomanyolo ezivela eRussia kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Agasti walo nyaka, ngokusho kwedatha yakamuva etholakalayo, ngokuvamile ziye zehla uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule, abahlaziyi be-International Research Institute for Food Policy (IFPRI) uJoseph. Inothi likaGlauber noDavid Laborde.
IMoscow ivale idatha yokuthekelisa kusukela ngoMashi, kodwa ngokusho kwabahlaziyi be-IFPRI, ngokususelwa kudatha evulekile evela emazweni angenisa umanyolo waseRussia, ukunikezwa kwe-potassium chloride ezinyangeni eziyisishiyagalombili zokuqala zalo nyaka kwehle ngo-16.5%, urea (urea, umanyolo oqukethe ama-46). % nitrogen) – ngo-22.8%. Ukungeniswa kwe-ammonia evela eRussia kwehle ikakhulukazi - ngo-63%, isizathu ukuvalwa kwepayipi le-Togliatti-Odessa ammonia. Ngasikhathi sinye, ukuhlinzekwa kwe-diammonium phosphate kudlula umthamo wezinyanga eziyisishiyagalombili zokuqala zika-2021 ngaphezu kuka-8%.
Naphezu kokuncipha kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, uhulumeni uhlela ukwethula imisebenzi yokuthekelisa kumanyolo kusukela ngoJanuwari 1. Cishe bazokwethulwa yiRussia unilaterally kanye nezinyanga eziyisithupha, ngoba isikhathi eside kudingekile ukuxhumanisa namanye amalungu e-Eurasian. Inyunyana Yezomnotho (EAEU).
Ngo-Okthoba, uNgqongqoshe wezeziMali u-Anton Siluanov wamemezela ukuthi kuzosetshenziswa imisebenzi yokuthumela ngaphandle uma amanani omhlaba e-phosphorus ne-nitrogen fertilizer edlula u-$ 500 ngethani ngalinye, kanti umanyolo we-potash - $400 ngethani. Futhi ngoNovemba, uNgqongqoshe Wezimboni Nezohwebo uDenis Manturov uthe intela yokuthekelisa kuzo zonke izinhlobo zomanyolo izoba ngu-23.5% uma amanani omhlaba edlula amaRandi angama-450 ngethani, futhi isinqumo esisalungiswa sesivele silungisiwe.
Imisebenzi izokhokhwa yibo bonke abakhiqizi
Ngokusho kukaPhosagro, izinga lezintengo ezimaphakathi zomanyolo wezimbiwa engxenyeni yesithathu ka-2022 lahlala liphezulu kunezintengo zesikhathi esifanayo ngo-2021. Isilinganiso senani lentengo ye-urea emachwebeni oLwandle iBaltic lalingu-$538 ngethani liqhathaniswa ne-$442 ngonyaka odlule. i-ammophos (i-ammonium phosphate, umanyolo we-nitrogen-phosphorus, iqukethe i-nitrogen engu-10-12% kanye ne-44-52% ye-phosphorus) - $777 ngethani ngesisekelo esifanayo ngokumelene ne-$ 695, nge-potassium chloride (umanyolo we-potassium oqukethe i-58-60% ye-potassium oxide) - $694 ngokumelene nama-$277.
“Amanani e-phosphorus—oqukethe nomanyolo we-potash ancipha kancane kancane ngoba ayephezulu kakhulu uma eqhathaniswa namanani emikhiqizo yezolimo,” kusho umbiko wale nkampani. “Amanani entengo kamanyolo wenitrogen, okuhlanganisa ne-urea, alandela umkhuba wokwenyuka kakhulu, okuhlanganisa nokuqhubeka kwezinga eliphezulu lamanani kagesi, nangenxa yokwehla okuphawulekayo kokukhiqizwa kwalezi zinhlobo zikamanyolo, ikakhulukazi eYurophu.”
Ngamanani amanje, kungenzeka ukuthi intela izokhokhiswa kuzo zonke izinhlobo zomanyolo, kusho uDmitry Puchkarev, uchwepheshe wemakethe yamasheya ye-BCS World of Investments.
“Manje amanani okudayisa e-potassium chloride e-Europe nase-USA alinganiselwa ku-$850-855 ithani ngalinye, nge-urea - $820-825, i-diammonium phosphate (umanyolo wenitrogen-phosphorus no-18% wenitrogen kanye no-46% we-phosphorus) - $820-830 ithani. Uma kuqhathaniswa nezintengo zentwasahlobo-ehlobo lika-2022, lapho zifinyelela ukuphakama kweminyaka eminingi, amanani ayancipha, "kusho uchwepheshe ozimele uLeonid Khazanov. "Kodwa-ke, amanani awakafiki ezingeni likaNovemba 2021, yize izindleko ze-urea zisondela ezinkomba zaleso sikhathi." Izintengo zokuthekelisa emachwebeni aseRussia ziphansi ngokusobala kunezintengo zokuthengisa eNtshonalanga, njengoba zingabandakanyi izindleko zokuthutha kanye nemajini yabathengisi etholakala phakathi kwabakhiqizi nabathengi.
“Inani elincishisiwe lika-$450 ngethani ngeke kuthiwe liphakeme kakhulu,” kusho u-Alexey Kalachev, umhlaziyi wakwaFinam. "Kungenzeka kakhulu, kube umphumela wezivumelwano nokuyekethisa." Ngokusho kukaKalachev, nakuba amanani omanyolo ehle ngo-20-30% kusukela kumanani aphezulu entwasahlobo, ahlala ephakeme - ayephezulu kuphela ekwindla ka-2021, futhi ngaphambi kwalokho amanani amaningi esikhathi ayephansi ngokuphawulekayo.
Emashumini eminyaka adlule, amanani kamanyolo akhuphuke ngaphezu kwama-$450 ngethani kuphela ngo-2007-2008 futhi ngo-2010-2012, amanothi e-Kalachev. Ngakho-ke, uthi, umsebenzi ongaphezu kwenani elinqunyiwe, ngokohlelo lukahulumeni, uzohoxisa isabelomali “ukuphelelwa umoya” kwabakhiqizi bakamanyolo ngokuhlangana okuyimpumelelo. Intengo encishisiwe izovikela abakhiqizi emthwalweni owedlulele wezezimali uma izimo zemakethe zishintsha futhi amanani ehlela emazingeni amaphakathi eminyaka edlule.
Ukulahlekelwa kwabakhiqizi ngemuva kokwethulwa kwemisebenzi yokuthekelisa ngeke kuncike kuphela emananini, kodwa futhi nesabelo sokuthengiswa kwamanye amazwe emalini yabo engenayo, kusho uKalachev. Manje izinkampani azizivezi indawo yokuthengisa. Eminyakeni edlule, ukuthunyelwa kwePhosagro kwamanye amazwe kungenise imali elinganiselwa kuma-70%. Uma intela ye-23.5% ikhokhiswa ngentengo engaphezu kuka-$ 450 ngethani, khona-ke ngenkathi kugcinwa amanani amanje, umsebenzi uzobiza inkampani mayelana ne-6% yemali engenayo, uchwepheshe ulinganisa.
UMnyango Wezimboni Nezohwebo awuzibhali izintengo zesisekelo esizothathwa njengesilinganiso, ngoba amanani ezisekelo ezihlukene ahluka kakhulu, kusho u-Oksana Lukicheva, umhlaziyi wezimakethe zempahla e-Otkritie Investments. Bonke abakhiqizi kuzodingeka bakhokhe imisebenzi, kodwa okokuqala labo ukuthunyelwa kwabo kwamanye amazwe kwahlala kuphezulu - iPhosagro, i-Akron, i-Eurochem. I-Uralchem, umkhiqizi oyinhloko womanyolo we-potash, uzokhokha kancane ngoba ukuthunyelwa kwayo kwamanye amazwe kwehlile.
Imisebenzi, ngokusho kukaLukicheva, inganciphisa imali engenayo yabathengisi, kodwa ngeke ithinte ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe. "Inani lentela lika-23.5% lamukelekile emananini aphezulu amanje kamanyolo," umhlaziyi uyakholelwa. “Ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kungase kuhlale kusezingeni lanyakenye noma kukhule uma unswinyo lwehliswa.”
Ukwethulwa kwalo msebenzi kungase kuholele ekwehleni kwempahla ethunyelwa ngaphandle evela eRussia uma amanani entengo kamanyolo wamaminerali emakethe yomhlaba eqhubeka nokwehla, ukholelwa uKhazanov. Ngokuthuthukiswa kwemicimbi enjalo, umhlaziyi uthi, inzuzo yabakhiqizi izokwehla, okuzophoqeleka ukuba kuncishiswe izimpahla futhi kubuyekeze izinhlelo zokutshala izimali. “Kodwa-ke, ngemuva kwesikhathi esithile, lokhu kuzoholela ekwenyukeni kwentengo kamanyolo wezimbiwa phesheya ngenxa yokushoda kwawo emakethe yomhlaba, njengoba kwenzeka entwasahlobo-ehlobo lika-2022, izinkampani zamakhemikhali zasekhaya, zilahlekelwe ngamathani, ukwazi ukubamba imali,” kukholwa uKhazanov.
Izabelo ngeke zikhawulele ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle
Imisebenzi akuyona ukuphela kwendlela yokulawula ukunikezwa kukamanyolo waseRussia phesheya. Uhulumeni unqume ukwelula izabelo zokuthunyelwa kukamanyolo kusukela ngomhlaka-1 Januwari kuya kuMeyi 31, 2023. Uhlaka lwesinqumo oluhambisanayo lushicilelwe kuphothali yezenzo zomthetho ezisalungiswa. Kuyo, umthamo wezilinganiso zokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngaphandle kwe-EAEU ubekwe ku-7,013 wezigidi zamathani omanyolo we-nitrogen kanye namathani ayizigidi ezingu-4,907 womanyolo oyinkimbinkimbi.
Lokhu kuncane kunalokho okwakuyikho. Kusukela ngoJulayi 1 kuya kuDisemba 31, 2022, izilinganiso zomanyolo we-nitrogen ziyasebenza - amathani ayizigidi ezingu-8.3, eziyinkimbinkimbi eziqukethe izakhi ezimbili noma ezintathu (i-nitrogen, i-phosphorus ne-potassium) - amathani ayizigidi ezingu-5.9. UMnyango Wezimboni Nezohwebo umemezele ngoNovemba 21 ukuthi usuvele unqume ukwenyusa isabelo esisha sokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwezinhlobo ezithile zomanyolo we-nitrogen: i-quota intengo yokuthekelisa ye-urea izokwenyuka ngamathani angama-400,000, i-ammonium nitrate - ngamathani angama-200,000, ingxube ye-urea-ammonia ngamathani ayi-150,000. I-protocol ehambisanayo yasayinwa yiPhini likaNdunankulu wokuqala u-Andrei Belousov. Kodwa-ke, ngisho nangemva kokwenyusa lesi sabelo ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-0.75 kuya kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-7.763, kuvele ukuthi kungaphansi kwesilinganiso samanje sokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe komanyolo we-nitrogen wamathani ayizigidi ezingu-8.3.
Ubukhulu bezabelo bubalwa ngokusekelwe kumthamo wokukhiqiza, okunikezwayo kubalimi baseRussia namabhizinisi ezimboni, ngokusho kwencazelo etholwe yiForbes evela kuMnyango Wezimboni Nohwebo. Ngokwale ncwadi, inguqulo ebuyekeziwe yombhalo egunyazwe uMnyango Wezolimo waseRussia futhi okuvunyelwene ngayo nguMnyango Wezimboni Nezohwebo waseRussia ihlinzekela ukudiliva kubalimi baseRussia ngoJanuwari-May 2023 ngo-10% ngaphezu kwezinga elifanayo. ngonyaka odlule, okube nomthelela ekwehliseni isamba senani lezabelo ezithunyelwa ngaphandle.
Inani elincane lama-quota, uma liqhathaniswa nezikhathi zangaphambilini zesabelo, ngokuyinhloko libangelwa isikhathi, kusho incazelo. Ngaphambilini, ama-quota ethulwa izinyanga eziyisithupha - kusukela ngoDisemba 1, 2021 kuya ku-May 31, 2022 futhi kusukela ngoJulayi 1, 2022 kuya kuDisemba 31, 2022. Isikhathi esihlongozwe yisinqumo sephrojekthi sihlanganisa izinyanga ezinhlanu kuphela - kusukela ngoJanuwari 1 kuya ku-May 31, 2023. “Inani lokugcina lama-quota lizonqunywa ngesikhathi sokudidiyelwa kwesinqumo esisalungiswa neziphathimandla zombuso ezithakazelayo futhi ligunyazwe emhlanganweni wekomiti elincane lentela yempahla kanye nomthetho ongakhokhiswa intela, izinyathelo zokuvikela ekuhwebeni kwamanye amazwe zeKhomishini Kahulumeni. wezokuThuthukiswa koMnotho nokudidiyela,” kubhala uMnyango Wezimboni Nezohwebo.
"Ngokujwayelekile, izabelo zokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe zethulwa ngenani elincane kuphela kunesilinganiso sevolumu yokuthekelisa ezikhathini ezedlule," kusho u-Alexey Kalachev, umhlaziyi wakwaFinam. "Bavikela imakethe yasekhaya ekukhuleni kwenani elithunyelwa ngaphandle, kodwa cishe abakwehlisi ukuthunyelwa kwezinkampani ezikhona."
Ukusungulwa kwezilinganiso kuzolungisa kuphela isilinganiso phakathi kokuthengiswa kwamanyolo amaminerali emakethe yasekhaya yaseRussia nakwamanye amazwe, uma kunesidingo, anganwetshwa, njengoba kwakunjalo kulo nyaka, kusho uKhazanov. "Kunoma yikuphi, imakethe yaseRussia izohlala ingukhiye kubakhiqizi bethu, okuthi ngo-2023 bakhulise amandla abo ngenxa yokusekelwa okuqhubekayo kombuso kwezolimo," kusho uchwepheshe.
Ngokusho kweRussian Association of Fertilizer Producers, kusukela ngoNovemba 16, 2022, abakhiqizi baseRussia bakamanyolo wamaminerali banikeze i-108% yesidingo esihleliwe sabakhiqizi bezolimo baseRussia, okulinganiselwa ukuthi kulo nyaka amathani ayizigidi ezi-4.85.
Umthombo: https://www.forbes.ru